# Estimate the FOB China price band and cost structure for ant
_2026-11-10 14:54 · 28.0s_
No live market feed is available in this session, so every price below is an estimate built on stated anchors and is marked [VERIFY]. Do not quote it to a customer without checking a paid price source (Fastmarkets, Shanghai Metals Market, Asian Metal) and China customs HS 2825.80 data.
1. Headline estimate (2026, FOB China main port, 99.5% Sb₂O₃, 25 kg bags on pallets, 20 t lot)
Scenario FOB USD/t Trigger
Bear 24,000-30,000 Chinese license approvals widen; demand destruction in flame retardants
Base (most likely) 33,000-42,000 Status quo: licensed exports, tight concentrate, dual pricing persists
Bull 45,000-60,000 Further control tightening, Myanmar/Russia/Tajik supply loss, restocking
Point estimate: USD 37,000-38,000/t. Volatility is the dominant feature, not the level; expect 15-25% intra-year swings.
2. Cost structure, base case, per tonne Sb₂O₃ (metal-oxidation route)
Item USD/t % of FOB Note
Antimony metal feedstock 31,000-34,000 83-88 0.87-0.90 t Sb per t oxide (Sb is 83.5% by mass, plus yield loss)
Conversion: furnace, oxidation, energy 1,200-1,800 3-5 Electricity/coal intensive; Chinese power prices
Refining and QC to 99.5% (As, Pb, Fe) 200-400 0.5-1 Assay certificate per batch
Packaging (25 kg PP/paper bags, pallet) 200-350 0.5-1
Inland freight, port, CIQ inspection 250-450 0.5-1 Shanghai / Huangpu / Beihai
License, compliance, trader margin 500-1,200 1.5-3 Export license scarcity is priced in here
Producer margin 2,800-4,200 8-12
Total ~36,000-42,000
Two structural facts: the metal leg sets the price, so trioxide tracks antimony metal with a 1-3 week lag; and China's export-license regime (in force since Sept 2024, with a US-specific ban added Dec 2024) creates a domestic-vs-export spread of roughly 25-40%. Domestic Chinese trioxide is materially cheaper than FOB export. [VERIFY current spread]
3. Verifiable vs guessed
Verifiable by the buyer, from primary sources:
- HS 2825.80.00 export volumes and unit values — China customs / UN Comtrade
- License requirement and any destination restrictions — MOFCOM announcements
- Current metal and oxide assessments — Fastmarkets, SMM, Asian Metal (paid)
- Export VAT treatment / rebate status on 2825.80 [VERIFY — I cannot confirm the 2026 rate]
- Antimony metal spot: Rotterdam and China domestic
Guesswork in this note:
- The 2026 band itself, all scenario weights, the 25-40% dual-price spread, conversion cost range, and margin range
- Assumed 0.87-0.90 t metal input per tonne oxide; actual yield varies by plant and feed grade
- Assumed no change in Chinese policy during 2026
4. Buyers should confirm with the supplier (ask for documents, not assurances)
1. Is your export license valid, for which destinations, and expiring when? Ask for the license reference.
2. Is the quote firm or indexed? If indexed, to which publication (SMM/Fastmarkets) and which lag?
3. Route: metal oxidation or direct concentrate roast? Affects impurity profile and price basis.
4. Batch COA: Sb₂O₃ assay, As, Pb, Fe, whiteness, sieve residue (45 µm), moisture. Ask for three historical COAs, not a spec sheet.
5. Quantity basis and tolerance; minimum lot; whether price steps at 5 t / 20 t / FCL.
6. Exact FOB port and Incoterms version; who bears loading, fumigation, palletization.
7. Lead time from LC receipt, and whether the shipment date is contingent on license issuance.
8. Payment terms and whether they require prepayment — a red flag signal on license confidence.
9. Whether the price includes export documentation, certificate of origin, and CIQ inspection.
10. Destination-market duties and any anti-dumping exposure — supplier may not know this; you must check.
Ask for two independent quotes plus one from a non-Chinese source (Turkey, Vietnam, Bolivia tolling) as a sanity check on the export premium.
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